TBD and Student Presentations

 

(Week 3)

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Schedule
-Week 1

Institutions and Institutional Analysis

-Week 2

Experimentation in the Social and Behavioral Sciences

-Week 3

Complexity: Computational Models and Social Networks

-Week 4

MFR and Student Presentations

 

Previous

EITM's
-UCLA (2007)
-Michigan (2006)
-UC-Berkeley (2005)

-Duke (2004)

-Michigan (2003)

-Harvard (2002)
 

Contact Info

-eitm@duke.edu

Syllabus – Draft

 

Empirical Implications of Theoretical Models (EITM):

Complexity, Computational Models and Social Networks

 

Leads: 

Scott de Marchi (Duke)

James H. Fowler (UC-SD)

 

Guests:

Betsy Sinclair (Chicago)

Charles Taber (SUNY-SB)

 

Summary 

EITM, for many social scientists, involves developing a correspondence between game theory (i.e., the theoretical models half of the acronym) and parametric statistical work (i.e., the empirical implications half).  Implicit in this formulation is the idea that game theory, as an encoding, represents rational play, and can accommodate most phenomena of interest.  The challenge is that many game theoretic models lack clear empirical referents; thus, better tools are needed to test the results of these models.  This approach to EITM is certainly useful, but will not by and large be the focus of the third week.

Instead, we will be taking the road less traveled.  For us, theoretical models will most often be generated using computational experiments written in a programming language like R, C, or Perl.  For computational and complex systems models, deductive tractability is sacrificed for more verisimilitude, richer models with a greater number of testable implications, and the incorporation of dynamics (e.g., even if there is an equilibrium, how does a population of agents reach it – if ever?).  

Computational models are particularly attractive for those who study complex network phenomena.  Scientists are increasingly realizing that the interconnected nature of human social relationships presents special challenges that are frequently intractable in a sparse game-theoretic setting.  At the same time, the increasing availability of large-scale social network data provides an opportunity to study political phenomena at both the micro and macro level.

The main goal of the week will be to consider questions that are not normally asked within the confines of the game theoretic tradition, and consider what types of analytic and statistical methods are required to answer them.  Accordingly, much of our time will be spent learning new skills required for computational modeling and social network analysis.

Readings + Themes

Before you start our week, we recommend:

Reading

  • Miller, John and Scott Page.  Complex Adaptive Systems.  Princeton, 2007.

  • Ballard, Dana.  Introduction to Natural Computation.  MIT, 1997.

  • Fowler, James H. and Michael Laver.  "A Tournament of Party Decision Rules." Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2008.

Programming

  • start fiddling with the programming language R.   If you have an interest in or experience with python, c/c++ or ruby, fiddling around with these will also be helpful

  • be sure to install R on your machine.  For information go to http://cran.r-project.org/.

June 29 (Sunday).  Theme: Basic Programming Skills


6 – 9 Pizza and Programming – bring your laptop! (de Marchi, Fowler).  Group assignment will be distributed.

 

June 30 (Monday).  Theme: EITM = Combining methods.  Leads: Scott de Marchi and James Fowler.

Readings:

  • de Marchi, Scott.  Lifting the Curse of Dimensionality: Computational Modeling in the Social Sciences.  Chapters 1-3.

  • Ken Kollman, John H. Miller, and Scott Page, ``Adaptive Parties in Spatial Elections,'' American Political Science Review 86 (December, 1992): 929-37.

9 – 10, Introduction by Fowler

10 – 12, Overview of Computational Models (and their place in methods generally)

1 – 3, All you need to know about non-parametric statistics, equivalence classes, optimization, and other sundry topics

3 – ?, Group Work on first assignment & meetings

 

July 1 (Tuesday).  Theme: Computational Models Applied to Elections.  Lead: Charles Taber.

Readings:

  • Laver, Michael.  "Policy and the dynamics of political competition." American Political Science Review 99:2 (May 2005): 263-281.

  • de Marchi, Scott, Michael Ensley, and Michael Tofias.  "District Complexity and Congressional Incumbency Advantage," Working Paper.

  • A Computational Model of the Citizen as Motivated Reasoner: Modeling the Dynamics of the 2000 Presidential Election. Sung-youn Kim, Charles S. Taber, and Milton Lodge.  Working paper.

Recommended:

  • de Marchi, Scott.  Adaptive Models and Electoral Instability. 1999. Journal of Theoretical Politics. 11(3): 393-419.

9 – 11, Group presentations of first homework assignment

12 – 4, Elections, computational style

4 – ?, Group Meetings

 

July 2 (Wednesday).  Theme: Social Network Theory.  Lead: Betsy Sinclair.

Readings:

  • Fowler, James H. "Habitual Voting and Behavioral Turnout." Journal of Politics 68 (2): 335-344 (May 2006)

  • Fowler, James H. "Turnout in a Small World." in Alan Zuckerman, ed., Social Logic of Politics, Temple University Press, 269-287 (2005)

  • "Detecting Spillover in Social Networks: Design and Analysis of Multi-level Experiments". Margaret McConnell, Betsy Sinclair, and Donald Green. In Social and Economic Networks (forthcoming).

 Recommended:

  • Bendor, Jonathan, Daniel Diermeier, and Michael Ting. "A Behavioral Model of Turnout." American Political Science Review 97(2): 261-280 (2003)

  • S. Boccalettia, V. Latorab, Y. Morenod, M. Chavez, D.-U. Hwang, "Complex networks: Structure and dynamics," Physics Reports 424 (2006) 175 – 308

  • Hoff PD, Raftery AE, Handcock MS, "Latent space approaches to social network analysis."  Journal of the American Statistical Association 97 (460): 1090-1098 (Dec 2002)

9 – 12, Introduction to social networks

1 – 3, Applications of social networks part 1

3 – 4, Group Meetings

 

July 3 (Thursday).  Theme: Applied Social Network Theory.  Lead: James Fowler.

Readings:

  • Fowler, James H. "Connecting the Congress: A Study of Cosponsorship Networks." Political Analysis 14 (4): 456-487 (Fall 2006)

  • Fowler, James H., Johnson, James Spriggs, Sangick Jeon, and Paul Wahlbeck . "Network Analysis and the Law." Political Analysis, 15 (3): 324-346 (July 2007)

9 – 12, Applications of networks to social science part 2

1– 4, Group work & meetings

 

July 4 (Friday).  Theme: Computational Models of Social Network Phenomena in Political Science


No Reading – student presentations

9 – 11, Group presentations

11 – 12, Concluding remarks and discussion (Fowler)

12 – 1, Concluding remarks and discussion (de Marchi)

2 – 4, Meetings and personal project time

           

 

 

Department of Political Science, 326 Perkins Library, Box 90204, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708.

Phone 919.660.4300 -- Fax 919.660.4330